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Original source: Mundo Maldini
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Griezmann's absence and dismal away form place Atlético Madrid before one of their toughest ties of the season, in a stadium that has historically crushed the ambitions of teams with even greater squad depth.
Copa del Rey: Athletic Club Favored Against Away-Struggling Atlético, Missing Griezmann
Winning at San Mamés is inherently difficult, and the circumstances surrounding Atlético Madrid in this Copa del Rey semi-final aggravate that difficulty, making it almost a foregone conclusion. The Rojiblancos arrive at the Bilbao stronghold with an away performance that, in recent matches, has been notably inferior to their level at the Metropolitano. Crucially, they are without Antoine Griezmann, whose absence is not a minor detail; according to analysis, with the French international available and in form, Athletic's chances would have climbed even further. The most recent precedent of a team capable of navigating a semi-final tie at San Mamés was Bordalás's Valencia, which secured a draw before eliminating Athletic in the return leg at Mestalla.
More broadly, this semi-final reveals the structural fragility of teams that rely on a singular player to alter the opponent's approach. While Atlético possesses sufficient squad depth to pull off a surprise, the combination of a poor collective performance away from home, the immense pressure of the Basque stadium — identified as a decisive factor, almost an additional player — and the absence of their most unbalancing footballer means that any favorable prediction for the Madrid side must hinge on an exception, not the rule.
"Winning at San Mamés is very difficult. Atlético Madrid's away form is considerably worse than it should be, and today is a match where they start at a disadvantage."
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