Vinicius Jr. for Ballon d'Or: Debate Tilts Towards Brazilian, But Rodri and Kroos Complicate the Podium 🇪🇸

Original source: Mundo Maldini

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The 2024 Ballon d'Or debate reveals the importance of the criteria used to measure excellence: collective titles and the Euros make Rodri and Kroos uncomfortable rivals for Vinicius, even as the Brazilian is, for many, the undisputed favorite.

Vinicius Jr. for Ballon d'Or: Debate Tilts Towards Brazilian, But Rodri and Kroos Complicate the Podium

The fundamental question isn't whether Vinicius Jr. deserves the Ballon d'Or, but whether there's any sufficiently solid argument to deny him. His defenders point to his decisive role in La Liga and the Champions League: goals in the round of 16, double assists in the quarterfinals, a memorable performance against Bayern in the semifinals, and a goal in the final. His statistics in Europe's top competition back him up for three consecutive seasons. Brazil's Copa América campaign ended in the quarterfinals via penalties, but his display against Paraguay was highlighted as the tournament's best individual performance.

The real tension lies in the rest of the podium. Rodri, European champion with Spain, appears as an almost unanimous candidate for second place, although some argue his best season was the previous one. Kroos, on the other hand, generates more debate: his influence on Madrid's machinery was decisive, and his retirement adds sentimental weight to an already strong candidacy based on merit. The order between Rodri, Kroos, and Carvajal reflects a structural tension in the award's criteria: does collective performance weigh more heavily, or individual impact in decisive moments?

"There hasn't been a more decisive player at the highest level than Vinicius this past season."

▶ Watch this segment — 42:50

Mbappé Misses Ballon d'Or Top 10 Despite 44 Goals; Debate Places Carvajal in Top 5

Forty-four goals, a tally that matches Harry Kane as the season's top scorer, are not enough to place Kylian Mbappé among the top ten for the Ballon d'Or, according to this analysis. The reason is structural: in the Champions League, he didn't score in the semifinals against Dortmund, and in the Euros, he played well below his usual standard after breaking his nose. The consensus rating places him first in the top 20, but far from the honorable positions the media have reserved for him for years based on reputation. The case illustrates the tension between sustained competitive performance and real impact in decisive moments.

Dani Carvajal, conversely, presents arguments of a different nature: a La Liga champion, a Champions League winner—scoring in the final against Dortmund—and a European champion, performing as a decisive full-back both offensively and defensively. His candidacy for the top 5 rests on an accumulation of titles across three top-tier competitions, which forces a reordering of already allocated positions. Florian Wirtz, meanwhile, earns a place in the top 10 for his role in Bayer Leverkusen's unbeaten campaign, although his exact position remains to be defined.

"From a footballing perspective, he's been well below Rodri, Kroos, Carvajal. That's just the truth."

▶ Watch this segment — 36:36

Toni Kroos in Ballon d'Or Top 5: His Retirement Season Deemed Career-Best

Toni Kroos concludes his career with what analysts consider, arguably, his best individual season. A La Liga and Champions League winner with Real Madrid, he was the primary playmaker for a team that faced genuine difficulties, proving systematically crucial in decisive matches. His place in the Ballon d'Or top 5 is considered certain; the discussion is merely whether he ranks ahead or behind Carvajal. The argument in his favor is clear: he had more structural influence on Madrid's play than any other defensive player on the team.

Lautaro Martínez, meanwhile, builds a top 10 candidacy on two distinct pillars: top scorer in Serie A and a decisive player in Argentina's Copa América victory, including a goal in the final. His case is that of a player who enters this voting free from the shadow cast by the 2022 World Cup, where Julián Álvarez surpassed him in the starting eleven. His only two Champions League goals and a missed penalty in the group stage are the sole blemishes on a season that, overall, is valued above those of several more media-visible players.

"He has been Madrid's playmaker, the one who gave Madrid meaning in their play in many matches when they were struggling."

▶ Watch this segment — 22:48

Rodri a Strong Candidate for Ballon d'Or Second Place; Rüdiger and Valverde Vie for Top 10

Rodri solidifies his position as the world's second-best player in this ranking exercise, though not without nuance. A European champion with Spain at the Euros, he also led Manchester City in the Premier League before his injury. Those who rank him lower cite cup and Champions League eliminations; his defenders retort that reaching and winning the Eurocopa final is sufficient merit for the second spot. The tension between both positions ultimately reflects which competition is considered more valuable for the purposes of this award.

Antonio Rüdiger generates the most interesting debate in the defensive category. A La Liga and Champions League winner, he was also the player who took the decisive penalty in the shootout that eliminated Manchester City in the corresponding round, a moment that encapsulates the entire logic of his valuation: decisive moments matter more than regular matches. Federico Valverde, for his part, earns a place in the top 10 for his impact at Real Madrid, although his Copa América campaign with Uruguay, where they fell to Colombia in the semifinals, does not add sufficient weight to his candidacy.

"He scores the penalty that eliminates City. All of that counts."

▶ Watch this segment — 33:18

Bellingham in Ballon d'Or Top 5; Lamine Yamal Enters Top 10 Despite Barcelona's Inconsistent Year

Jude Bellingham earns his spot in the top 5 for what he meant to Real Madrid when the team needed him most: goals that decided matches the club was losing, a goal-scoring influence that, by this analysis's criteria, surpasses Erling Haaland's for Manchester City. His Eurocopa performance was inconsistent—though he provided England's dramatic rescue in the group stage—and his current season start is clearly inferior, but neither of those elements is factored into the vote. The structural question is whether his final position ranks ahead of or behind Carvajal and Kroos.

Lamine Yamal, at 17, enters the top 10 with more reservations than certainties. The Euros were the strongest argument in his favor, with high-level performances and a stunning goal against France serving as the tournament's defining image. In the league, however, Barcelona competed neither for La Liga nor advanced beyond the Champions League quarterfinals, which limits the scope of his candidacy. The consensus places him above Mbappé but below several players with more titles or greater impact in decisive moments. The Kopa Trophy—best young player—is considered a given.

"He has been more important for Real Madrid than Haaland for Manchester City, despite the number of goals Haaland has scored."

▶ Watch this segment — 40:17

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Summarised from Mundo Maldini · 52:48. All credit belongs to the original creators. Streamed.News summarises publicly available video content.